The median sales price of a home in the Bend, Oregon, real estate market fell below $700,000 in October but still showed a year-over-year increase.
October’s median price of $679,950 was 6.2 percent less than the median price the month before, which was $724,900. From the record high median price of $773,000 in February, the median sales price in the Bend market has fallen 12.0 percent.
Compared with October 2021, however, the median price last month showed a 5.4 percent increase. Last December, I cited a CoreLogic forecast of a nationwide 2.5 percent increase in sales price from October 2021 to October 2022. Bend’s growth in the median sales price over that time was more than double the projection from CoreLogic.
Baked in to that CoreLogic projection was an expectation of mortgage rates rising to about 3.4 percent. In fact, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are exceeding 7 percent – approaching a 20-year high.
The point is that, even with mortgage rates more than twice what was expected, Bend’s year-over-year price increase more than doubled the nationwide forecast.
In school, they call that ruining the curve. In business, it’s called supply and demand: People continue to want to own homes in Bend, even as higher mortgage rates create an additional challenge to doing so.
Other data points in October’s sales report show continued regression toward a pre-pandemic state of the market. Inventory (2.4 months) exceeded two months for the fourth consecutive month, the longest such stretch since the first half of 2020. Average sales price to list price (98 percent) was less than 100 percent for the fourth consecutive month, also for the first time since early 2020.
Activity in October was low, even by the standards of past falls. There were 159 sales, the fewest in any October since 2011 (121 sales). The month ended with 125 pending sales, also the fewest since 2011 (120).
New listings in October decreased among all but one price tier ($525,100 to $625,000). The biggest declines in new listings were in the $425,100-to-$525,000 range and the $725,100-to-$825,000 tier.
Real estate activity tends to decline as winter approaches, and overall economic angst – about inflation in general and mortgage rates in particular – could also lead to some hibernation in the market. But if you’re looking to buy a home or considering selling yours, I can confidently say that I can help make your real estate journey a success. I will use my experience and knowledge of the Bend market for your benefit, regardless of market conditions. I invite you to contact me at (541) 362-1031 or by visiting Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.