Amid another record sales figure, buyers are pushing back

Median sales figure graphThe median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, set another record in July, the second month in a row that figure has reached unprecedented levels. But along with the rising median sales price came evidence that the market is highly competitive and buyers are pushing back on overpriced homes.

July’s median sales price was $412,500. That’s $3,500 (0.9 percent) more than June’s median price. June and July are the only two months out of the more than 10 years for which the Skjersaa Group has data that Bend’s median sales price has exceeded $400,000.

Compared with the median sales price of July 2016, this July’s figure rose 13.2 percent. The year-over-year increase in June was 10.5 percent – meaning that July’s sales prices showed a greater annual increase than June’s.

But there are signs that sellers need to get ahead of the game and price their homes competitively.

The average days on the market in July was 141 days, compared with 91 days in June. The 141 days is the highest for any July since 2012, which is the only year since 2010 that a July has had a higher days-on-market figure than this year. Put another way: July 2017’s days on the market are the second-highest for any July in the last eight years.

Looking at it another way, consider that the highest figure for average days on the market in any month in 2016 was 142 days – and that came in February, a typically slow month for home sales.

Inventory of homes matches high for 2017

And the inventory – the number of months it would take to sell all homes currently on the market given the current pace of sales – rose in July to 3.7 months, matching the highest month of this calendar year (January) and last exceeded in February 2016, when there was 4.9 months of inventory.

Our data is broken down by various price ranges, and as is usual with our monthly sales figures, not every price range tells the same story.

The inventory of homes priced at $625,000 and less is at most three months. Homes priced at more than $625,000 are driving a big part of the overall inventory figure.

Sellers reduce prices on sizable fraction of homes

Accompanying the record for median sales price figures these last two months is another noteworthy — and perhaps counterintuitive — statistic: the percentage of homes on the market with price reductions.

That number was 43 percent in June and 40 percent in July. We have to go back to February 2009 — before the housing market rebounded — to find a month in which 40 percent of the homes for sale had a price reduction.

There were 570 active listings in July. That’s the highest amount since August 2015 (583 active listings). And on Aug. 1, 2017, there were 638 active listings, the most since there were 638 in October 2014.

The sales data these past couple of months are open to various interpretations. Wherever you are in the real estate cycle — buying a home or thinking of selling — I can help you. My integrity, ethics and experience will ensure you of an optimal outcome. To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Related Posts

  • 92
    By Jason Boone Although the median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, dropped in July for the second month in a row, there are plenty of signs that the trajectory of the market has only slightly leveled off and hasn’t begun anything approaching a downward path. July’s median…
    Tags: market, july, price, sales, median, months, percent, $, inventory, homes
  • 90
    The housing market in Bend, Oregon, tapered slightly in May, as the median sales price fell for the second month in succession and the inventory of homes on the market rose compared with April. Still, the year-to-date median price remained steady at a price that represents a high for the…
    Tags: median, price, $, sales, percent, homes, months, inventory, market, month
  • 88
    The median sales price of Bend homes hit another record high in August -- barely. It marked the third month in a row the median sales figure established a record. At $414,000, the median sales price in August was $1,500 (0.4 percent) higher than July’s amount. That’s an even smaller…
    Tags: price, market, sales, median, homes, inventory, $, months, month, days
  • 86
    By Jason Boone In my review of May’s home sales data in Bend, Oregon, I suggested that the market might have been reaching a peak. The figures for the three months since seem to support that theory. The median sales price of a home in August was $359,000. That represents the…
    Tags: price, sales, market, median, months, percent, $, homes, inventory, month
  • 83
    By Jason Boone The median price of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in May was the second-highest in the last 10 years, but there are signs that prices might be nearing or at a peak. At $374,000, the median sales price in May 2016 trailed only that of May 2007…
    Tags: price, homes, sales, market, median, month, months, $, days, inventory

Record for median sales price in June; $400K mark exceeded

Back-to-back months of declines in the median sales price of homes in Bend, Oregon, ended in June: The median price was $409,000 – a record for the 10-plus years for which the Skjersaa Group has data and the first time in that period that the median price has reached $400,000.

June 2017 figures share some characteristics from the same month in previous years, and the most important one might be that only once in the preceding 10 years was June the high-water mark for the median sales price in a calendar year.

June had the highest number of active homes (442) and the highest number of sold homes (246) this calendar year to date, as was the case with June each of the previous three years. In all three of those years, the June sales price exceeded what was then the year-to-date median price for the respective calendar year, but later months those years exceeded June’s median price.

Translation: Based on data from the last three years, June’s record-breaking sales prices could very well be eclipsed this calendar year.

It’s worth remembering that the median sales price is not an average sales price. The median is the amount at which half of the homes sold in a given month went for less than the median, and half went for more than the median.

Using the median figure rather than the average prevents the figures in question from being skewed by a handful of high-end homes.

(Which didn’t happen, anyway. Ten homes priced for $825,100 or more were sold in June, one fewer than in each of April and May.)

The inventory of homes on the market increased in June to 3.3 months. That’s the highest for a June since 2014, when it was 4.2 months. But, similar to a phenomenon we pointed out last month, the inventory for Bend as a whole is weighted by the most expensive tier of homes.

Inventory for homes in the range of $825,100 and $925,000 was 3.2 months, and for homes priced at $925,100 and up, it was 15.2 months. For homes priced up to $825,000 – which made up 79 percent of the active listings in June – the inventory was three months and less.

June’s median sales price was 10.5 percent higher than in June 2016. That marked the third year in a row that the year-over-year increase in June exceeded 10 percent. June’s $409,000 median price was 7.9 percent over the previous month’s – and that’s the highest month-over-month increase for a June since 2011, when the region was clawing its way out of the housing decline.

Another record was set in June, and that was for lowest average days on market: 91 days. It was the first time the average was less than 100 days since July 2016 (when it was 97 days) and only the third time since at least January 2007 (the extent of our data set) it has been less than 100 days.

It seems clear the real estate market in Bend has hit full stride. It’s an exciting time to be in the market – as a buyer or a seller. Whatever your position, I can assist in bringing about a solution that leaves you satisfied and in a great position.  To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Related Posts

  • 86
    By Jason Boone The numbers of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in January dropped compared with previous months -- which probably shouldn’t be a surprise given our weather -- but the median price of those homes that were bought was on the rise. The median sales price in January 2017 was…
    Tags: price, sales, homes, median, year
  • 66
    By Jason Boone Although the median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, dropped in July for the second month in a row, there are plenty of signs that the trajectory of the market has only slightly leveled off and hasn’t begun anything approaching a downward path. July’s median…
    Tags: price, sales, median, months, $, homes, year
  • 63
    By Jason Boone In my review of May’s home sales data in Bend, Oregon, I suggested that the market might have been reaching a peak. The figures for the three months since seem to support that theory. The median sales price of a home in August was $359,000. That represents the…
    Tags: price, sales, median, months, $, homes, year, days
  • 61
    The median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, set another record in July, the second month in a row that figure has reached unprecedented levels. But along with the rising median sales price came evidence that the market is highly competitive and buyers are pushing back on overpriced…
    Tags: sales, price, homes, days, median, months, june, $
  • 61
    By Jason Boone The median price of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in May was the second-highest in the last 10 years, but there are signs that prices might be nearing or at a peak. At $374,000, the median sales price in May 2016 trailed only that of May 2007…
    Tags: price, homes, sales, median, months, $, days

Median sales price falls for second month in a row. What happened last time that occurred?

The housing market in Bend, Oregon, tapered slightly in May, as the median sales price fell for the second month in succession and the inventory of homes on the market rose compared with April. Still, the year-to-date median price remained steady at a price that represents a high for the 10-plus years for which we have data.

May’s median sales price was $379,000. That’s 4.1 percent lower than March’s median sales price of $395,000 and 2.8 percent lower than April’s median of $389,950.

If recent history is any indication, this dip could eventually turn into a trampoline. The last time monthly median sales prices declined in consecutive months was in 2016 (when they fell for three months in a row, in fact). That stretch of monthly declines after the median price reached $374,000 in May ended emphatically with a 7.5 percent month-over-month increase from August to September to $385,750 – the calendar-year high for 2016.

Two hundred seventeen homes were sold in May, four fewer than in April. The number of houses whose priced was reduced was 107 — 32 percent. The last time the percentage of active listings with a reduced price was that high was in the three-month stretch in 2016 when the monthly median sales figure dropped. (See the previous paragraph for what happened after that three-month stretch.)

Year over year, May’s median sales price showed a 1.3 percent increase from the corresponding month in 2016. That is the smallest year-over-year increase in a monthly median sales figure since January 2016. That month, the median sales price of $317,450 was 3.7 percent lower than in January 2015.

The 2017 year-to-date median price stayed at $380,000 after taking into account May’s sales. That remains the highest year-to-date median price on record. In fact, each month of 2017 has reset or tied the record for the highest year-to-date median sales price.

High-end homes a big part of inventory

The inventory of homes rose to 3.1 months in May. Inventory — expressed as the time that would be required to sell all homes on the market given the current pace of activity — was 1.7 months in May 2016.

May 2017’s inventory is skewed, however, toward higher-priced homes. Of May’s 337 active listings, 33 percent were priced at more than $725,000 (that percentage was 25 percent in March and 31 percent in April). For homes priced from $225,100 to $625,000, the inventory is in the range of two months. And two months of inventory falls well on the side of being a “seller’s market.”

Tied to the inventory is the volume of homes on the market. Each month this year, the active listings have been the fewest for those respective months in the 10-plus years for which the Skjersaa Group has data. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the quantity of homes priced at $725,000 and less is particularly tight.

Late spring and summer traditionally are the most active months for real estate, and if you’re looking to buy a home or considering putting yours on the market, I can be of help. In my time as a Realtor, I have helped clients achieve their desired results regardless of the time of year and the trend of the market. To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Related Posts

  • 90
    The median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, set another record in July, the second month in a row that figure has reached unprecedented levels. But along with the rising median sales price came evidence that the market is highly competitive and buyers are pushing back on overpriced…
    Tags: sales, price, homes, median, months, market, percent, month, inventory, $
  • 90
    By Jason Boone Although the median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, dropped in July for the second month in a row, there are plenty of signs that the trajectory of the market has only slightly leveled off and hasn’t begun anything approaching a downward path. July’s median…
    Tags: market, price, sales, median, months, percent, $, inventory, homes, month
  • 88
    By Jason Boone In my review of May’s home sales data in Bend, Oregon, I suggested that the market might have been reaching a peak. The figures for the three months since seem to support that theory. The median sales price of a home in August was $359,000. That represents the…
    Tags: price, sales, market, median, months, percent, $, homes, year, inventory
  • 84
    Even in the Bend real estate market, it’s reasonable to expect a slowdown in activity in the final months of the year, with fewer homes sold and prices dropping. Except this year, that’s not happening in Bend. November sales figures, in fact, showed an increase in the median sales price…
    Tags: price, homes, market, percent, median, sales, inventory, year, months, $
  • 83
    By Jason Boone The median price of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in May was the second-highest in the last 10 years, but there are signs that prices might be nearing or at a peak. At $374,000, the median sales price in May 2016 trailed only that of May 2007…
    Tags: price, homes, sales, market, median, month, months, $, inventory

Median price drops in February amid overall mixed data

UntitledLooking solely at February’s median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, one might be struck by the decline from the previous month. But other data from the real estate market indicate the demand for homes remains strong.

February’s median sales price was $354,853. That’s 4.3 percent lower than January 2017’s figure of $370,813. Compared with February 2016, however, median prices showed a 7.0 percent increase.

This was the sixth consecutive February in which there was a year-over-year increase in the median sales price. Last month’s 7.0 percent year-over-year rise was the second-lowest over this six-year span, not much more than the 6.8 percent increase from February 2014 to February 2015. In the other four years, the February year-over-year increase in the median sales price was more than 14 percent, and — looking at just one month earlier — the year-over-year increase from January 2016 to January 2017 was 16.8 percent.

Does February’s median sales price mean that the appetite for homes is grinding down? In considering this question, it’s worth looking at other information from last month.

The inventory of homes for sale decreased from 3.1 months in January to 2.7 months in February. In 2016, the February inventory of 4.9 months was a calendar-year high.

The average days on the market in February also reflected a more active than usual February market. In January, the average days on market was 141 days, and in February it fell to 136, within two days of the shortest time in any February in the 10 years for which the Skjersaa Group has data.

One hundred twenty-eight homes were sold in February. On a per-day basis, that’s a higher rate than the 130 sold in January. Comparing to February in previous years, the 128 is the second-most sold in the last 10 years, behind the 131 in 2014.

But there’s also this: Fifty-seven houses on the market in Bend reflected a reduced price. As a percentage of active listings (324 homes), that is 17.6 percent. Looking, again, to February in previous calendar years, that was the most since a 19.9 percent reduced rate in February 2011. In February 2012, the rate was 17.5 percent, essentially the same as in February of this year.

The percentage of homes priced at $625,100 or more continues to be the largest segment of homes on the market. Of the 324 active listings in February, 35 percent (114 homes) were in this price range after 36 percent of active listings were of this price in January. As the calendar turned to March, there were 326 active listings, and the percentage of homes priced $625,100 or more was higher: 38 percent.

Whatever the market is doing, you will benefit from having an experienced Realtor working for your best interests. I know the Bend market and will help you realize a worry-free outcome — whether you’re considering selling your home or you’re a buyer. To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Related Posts

  • 75
    By Jason Boone The numbers of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in January dropped compared with previous months -- which probably shouldn’t be a surprise given our weather -- but the median price of those homes that were bought was on the rise. The median sales price in January 2017 was…
    Tags: january, price, homes, median, percent, market
  • 64
    By Jason Boone Although the median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, dropped in July for the second month in a row, there are plenty of signs that the trajectory of the market has only slightly leveled off and hasn’t begun anything approaching a downward path. July’s median…
    Tags: market, price, median, percent, homes
  • 57
    The median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, dropped in April compared with the month before, but the inventory of homes for sale fell for the third month in a row, leaving the tightest supply in more than 10 years. The median sales price in April was $389,950.…
    Tags: price, median, homes, market, percent
  • 49
    The housing market in Bend, Oregon, tapered slightly in May, as the median sales price fell for the second month in succession and the inventory of homes on the market rose compared with April. Still, the year-to-date median price remained steady at a price that represents a high for the…
    Tags: median, price, percent, homes, market
  • 49
    By Jason Boone Any sense during the summer months that the housing market in Bend, Oregon, was softening or beginning to tilt in favor of buyers might be erased by the sales figures from September. After three months of declines in the median sales price, it rose in September to $385,750.…
    Tags: percent, price, market, median, homes

Scarcity of inventory drives increase in home prices

Anyone who has followed the Bend, Oregon, real estate market coming out of the great recession has probably wondered: How long can prices keep rising?

After all, mortgage interest rates have moved off their historic lows and appear headed for further increases. Higher interest rates cut into consumers’ buying power, and homes that are out of reach for potential home buyers won’t change hands.

But rather than facing a ceiling imposed by higher borrowing costs, home prices instead appear driven by the scarcity of inventory. And given that relationship, anyone waiting for an end to the upward trend to housing costs might have to be exceedingly patient — whether they’re in Bend or elsewhere in the United States.

Mortage News Daily, reporting on national home prices in the fourth quarter of 2016, noted a greater year-over-year increase in prices in December than in November and October. That means that even during a holiday season that traditionally heralds a slowdown in real estate activity, home prices rose more compared with a year prior than in more active months for home buying.

Here are the numbers: The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported a 6.2 percent increase in home prices in December 2016 compared with December 2015. The year-over-year gain was 6.1 percent in November 2016 and 6.0 percent in October.

The agency’s Housing Price Index is based on the purchase prices of homes whose mortgages are backed by or sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Those two agencies own or guarantee about 60 percent of the total U.S. mortgage market.

“In the years since the financial collapse, [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] have been the major source of credit for most people who got mortgages, and the only source of credit for less-than-pristine borrowers,” The Washington Post noted.

Andrew Leventis, FHFA’s deputy chief economist, told Mortgage News Daily: “Although interest rates rose sharply during the fourth quarter, our data show no signs of a home price slowdown. Although it will certainly take more time for the full effects of the elevated interest rates to be felt, there is no evidence of a normalization in the unusually low inventories of homes available for sale, which has been the primary force behind the extraordinary price gains.”

From the fourth quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2016, the largest gains in home prices were in Oregon, at 11 percent. Colorado was second, at 10.6 percent, and Washington was fourth, at 10.2 percent.

Bend trailed the state’s average as a whole. The median sales price in December 2016 in Bend was up “only” 9 percent from December of the previous year. The inventory of homes for sale in December 2016, though, was 2.3 months — which, before the 2016 calendar year — would have matched the lowest inventory during the 10 years for which the Skjersaa Group has data.

As an article in The Bulletin newspaper noted, the median price of homes in Bend is still less than for cities that have a similar appeal. In Boulder, Colorado, the median price for the first six months of 2016 rose almost 15 percent from $790,000 in 2015 to $905,000 in 2016. In Jackson, Wyoming, the median sales price in 2016 was up 2 percent from the year before, to $875,000.

“What is interesting is that Oregon in general, and in Bend, there is still arguably a cheap option relative to some of its comparators,” Duy told The Bulletin, adding that he sees no reason for home prices to stop climbing.

In an environment such as Bend’s, having a Realtor who knows the market is vital for your interests. My experience and knowledge will help you get your best deal, whether you’re a buyer or looking to sell your current home. Please contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

 

Related Posts

  • 77
    The housing market in Bend, Oregon, tapered slightly in May, as the median sales price fell for the second month in succession and the inventory of homes on the market rose compared with April. Still, the year-to-date median price remained steady at a price that represents a high for the…
    Tags: median, price, $, percent, homes, months, inventory, market, year
  • 75
    Mortgage interest rates are on the move again, and are only going up but the question that many Bend Oregon home buyers have is how high can they go? The answer to this question is anyone’s guess but, if you were old enough to remember the early 1980’s you will…
    Tags: mortgage, interest, bend, homes, percent, year, oregon, rates
  • 73
    By Jason Boone The median price of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in May was the second-highest in the last 10 years, but there are signs that prices might be nearing or at a peak. At $374,000, the median sales price in May 2016 trailed only that of May 2007…
    Tags: price, homes, market, median, bend, months, $, inventory
  • 72
    The median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, set another record in July, the second month in a row that figure has reached unprecedented levels. But along with the rising median sales price came evidence that the market is highly competitive and buyers are pushing back on overpriced…
    Tags: price, homes, median, months, market, percent, inventory, $
  • 67
    By Jason Boone Although the median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, dropped in July for the second month in a row, there are plenty of signs that the trajectory of the market has only slightly leveled off and hasn’t begun anything approaching a downward path. July’s median…
    Tags: market, price, median, months, bend, percent, $, inventory, homes, year

August median sales price shows further leveling off

By Jason Boone

In my review of May’s home sales data in Bend, Oregon, I suggested that the market might have been reaching a peak. The figures for the three months since seem to support that theory.

The median sales price of a home in August was $359,000. That represents the third month in succession that the median price has fallen, from May’s figure of $374,000 (which was the second-highest median figure in the 10-year period for which we have data).

Complementary data, however, show a still robust real estate market.

A decline in the median sales price in August might be reflection of the number of homes on the market. There were 534 active listings, the most this calendar year. The inventory of homes on the market (which represents how long it would take for all homes currently on the market to be sold if the number of houses for sale held steady) increased from 2.2 months in July to 2.4 months in August.

The inventory in Bend was nearly five months in February, but it has been less than three months in each of the six months since. Keep in mind that an inventory of six months is generally regarded as the boundary between a seller’s market and a buyer’s market — and we’re still at less than half of six months.

It’s worth considering also that the average days on the market for a sold home in August was 101 days. That’s an increase of four days from July but otherwise the lowest in this market since a 99-day average in May 2015.

The average sales price to list price in August was 98 percent. That’s the second-lowest of 2016. This calendar year had a string of 99 percent figures except for one month (95 percent in March), which probably has to be dismissed as noise. Excepting March, the average sales price to list price has been 99 percent in each month since October.

Despite the month-to-month declines in median sales price, the year-to-date median rose to a calendar-year high $356,124. That’s 9 percent more than the year-to-date median last August ($326,482). The August 2016 median sales price was 4.1 percent higher than last August’s.

Pending sales at the end of August numbered 257 — the fewest since 242 at the end of February. A similar drop in pending sales occurred last August, which could be a reflection of the end of the summer, typically a busy time for the real estate market.

The data indicate that it’s a good time to be either a seller or a buyer. To learn more about Bend home options, get started with listing your Bend home, or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

Related Posts

  • 95
    By Jason Boone The median price of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in May was the second-highest in the last 10 years, but there are signs that prices might be nearing or at a peak. At $374,000, the median sales price in May 2016 trailed only that of May 2007…
    Tags: price, homes, sales, market, median, month, bend, months, $, days
  • 92
    By Jason Boone Although the median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, dropped in July for the second month in a row, there are plenty of signs that the trajectory of the market has only slightly leveled off and hasn’t begun anything approaching a downward path. July’s median…
    Tags: market, price, sales, median, months, bend, percent, $, august, data
  • 89
    By Jason Boone The numbers of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in January dropped compared with previous months -- which probably shouldn’t be a surprise given our weather -- but the median price of those homes that were bought was on the rise. The median sales price in January 2017 was…
    Tags: price, sales, homes, median, percent, year, market
  • 88
    The housing market in Bend, Oregon, tapered slightly in May, as the median sales price fell for the second month in succession and the inventory of homes on the market rose compared with April. Still, the year-to-date median price remained steady at a price that represents a high for the…
    Tags: median, price, $, sales, percent, homes, months, inventory, market, month
  • 86
    The median sales price of a home in Bend, Oregon, set another record in July, the second month in a row that figure has reached unprecedented levels. But along with the rising median sales price came evidence that the market is highly competitive and buyers are pushing back on overpriced…
    Tags: sales, price, homes, days, median, months, market, percent, month, inventory

Jason Boone | Principal Broker, CRIS | Duke Warner Realty | Skjersaa Group
Oregon Real Estate Licensee | 1033 NW Newport Ave Bend, Oregon