June’s sales figures are a mixed bag

June sales figures for the Bend, Oregon, real estate market provided seemingly conflicting signals.

The median sales price fell from May’s all-time high of $466,000 to $445,050. June’s median price was less also than that of the previous June. Not by much – 0.98 percent, or $4,400 – but that reversal of direction in the year-over-year median price is of note. Whereas month-to-month declines in the median prices have been common the last few years, the year-to-year decline we saw in June was the first since January 2016, when there was a 3.72 percent drop from the previous January.

That decline in early 2016 followed 15 months of successive increases in the year-over year price, and that decline in early 2016 was followed by 40 consecutive months of increases. We’ll have to wait at least another month to find out if June’s small drop will be repeated or if it was a sign of the market taking a breather after back-to-back months of record highs in the median sales price (April: $462,900, May: $466,000).

A few other notes about June’s median sales price. The Bend, Oregon, real estate market hasn’t experienced successive months of declines in the year-over-year median price since October and November 2011 (minus-2.73 percent and minus-16.98 percent, respectively, from the previous year). The last time there was a year-over-year decline in June or any other summer month was also 2011 (June 2011, 3.16 percent less than the year prior). Looking at the month-to-month numbers reflected in June’s sales figures, the fall of 4.50 percent from May 2019 is the biggest decline since a 5.21 percent drop in December 2016.

All of the above makes the following information something of a surprise.

First, the average days on market in June was 84 days. That’s the shortest time for any month in our data set, which reaches to the start of 2007. For homes priced at $525,000 or less, the DOM was less than 80 days.
Moreover, the overall sales price to list price ratio in June was 99 percent, which is where it has been for most of the last 2½ years. Diving into the $425,100 to $525,000 price tier, however, the sales price to list price was 101 percent.

So, the data say that homes selling for a price range extending from a little less to a little more than the median price remain in extremely strong demand.

In fact, comparing the average days on market and the months of inventory from June 2019 to June 2018 for the price tiers ranging from $225,100 to $625,000, June 2019 had lower average days on market and a smaller inventory than the year prior. So despite the year-over-year decline in median price, other data points focusing on the non-luxury segment of the market show a thriving environment.

In a dynamic market producing sometimes conflicting signals, you’ll feel better with a trustworthy, ethical and experienced Realtor working for you. Whether you are considering selling your home or in the market to buy, I can be of help. My knowledge of the Bend market combined with my commitment to serving clients will help ensure a successful real estate journey. I encourage you to contact me at (541) 383-1426 or to visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

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