Median sales price falls for second month in a row. What happened last time that occurred?

The housing market in Bend, Oregon, tapered slightly in May, as the median sales price fell for the second month in succession and the inventory of homes on the market rose compared with April. Still, the year-to-date median price remained steady at a price that represents a high for the 10-plus years for which we have data.

May’s median sales price was $379,000. That’s 4.1 percent lower than March’s median sales price of $395,000 and 2.8 percent lower than April’s median of $389,950.

If recent history is any indication, this dip could eventually turn into a trampoline. The last time monthly median sales prices declined in consecutive months was in 2016 (when they fell for three months in a row, in fact). That stretch of monthly declines after the median price reached $374,000 in May ended emphatically with a 7.5 percent month-over-month increase from August to September to $385,750 – the calendar-year high for 2016.

Two hundred seventeen homes were sold in May, four fewer than in April. The number of houses whose priced was reduced was 107 — 32 percent. The last time the percentage of active listings with a reduced price was that high was in the three-month stretch in 2016 when the monthly median sales figure dropped. (See the previous paragraph for what happened after that three-month stretch.)

Year over year, May’s median sales price showed a 1.3 percent increase from the corresponding month in 2016. That is the smallest year-over-year increase in a monthly median sales figure since January 2016. That month, the median sales price of $317,450 was 3.7 percent lower than in January 2015.

The 2017 year-to-date median price stayed at $380,000 after taking into account May’s sales. That remains the highest year-to-date median price on record. In fact, each month of 2017 has reset or tied the record for the highest year-to-date median sales price.

High-end homes a big part of inventory

The inventory of homes rose to 3.1 months in May. Inventory — expressed as the time that would be required to sell all homes on the market given the current pace of activity — was 1.7 months in May 2016.

May 2017’s inventory is skewed, however, toward higher-priced homes. Of May’s 337 active listings, 33 percent were priced at more than $725,000 (that percentage was 25 percent in March and 31 percent in April). For homes priced from $225,100 to $625,000, the inventory is in the range of two months. And two months of inventory falls well on the side of being a “seller’s market.”

Tied to the inventory is the volume of homes on the market. Each month this year, the active listings have been the fewest for those respective months in the 10-plus years for which the Skjersaa Group has data. As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the quantity of homes priced at $725,000 and less is particularly tight.

Late spring and summer traditionally are the most active months for real estate, and if you’re looking to buy a home or considering putting yours on the market, I can be of help. In my time as a Realtor, I have helped clients achieve their desired results regardless of the time of year and the trend of the market. To learn more about how I can assist you in your real estate transaction, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

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August median sales price shows further leveling off

By Jason Boone

In my review of May’s home sales data in Bend, Oregon, I suggested that the market might have been reaching a peak. The figures for the three months since seem to support that theory.

The median sales price of a home in August was $359,000. That represents the third month in succession that the median price has fallen, from May’s figure of $374,000 (which was the second-highest median figure in the 10-year period for which we have data).

Complementary data, however, show a still robust real estate market.

A decline in the median sales price in August might be reflection of the number of homes on the market. There were 534 active listings, the most this calendar year. The inventory of homes on the market (which represents how long it would take for all homes currently on the market to be sold if the number of houses for sale held steady) increased from 2.2 months in July to 2.4 months in August.

The inventory in Bend was nearly five months in February, but it has been less than three months in each of the six months since. Keep in mind that an inventory of six months is generally regarded as the boundary between a seller’s market and a buyer’s market — and we’re still at less than half of six months.

It’s worth considering also that the average days on the market for a sold home in August was 101 days. That’s an increase of four days from July but otherwise the lowest in this market since a 99-day average in May 2015.

The average sales price to list price in August was 98 percent. That’s the second-lowest of 2016. This calendar year had a string of 99 percent figures except for one month (95 percent in March), which probably has to be dismissed as noise. Excepting March, the average sales price to list price has been 99 percent in each month since October.

Despite the month-to-month declines in median sales price, the year-to-date median rose to a calendar-year high $356,124. That’s 9 percent more than the year-to-date median last August ($326,482). The August 2016 median sales price was 4.1 percent higher than last August’s.

Pending sales at the end of August numbered 257 — the fewest since 242 at the end of February. A similar drop in pending sales occurred last August, which could be a reflection of the end of the summer, typically a busy time for the real estate market.

The data indicate that it’s a good time to be either a seller or a buyer. To learn more about Bend home options, get started with listing your Bend home, or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

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Median sales price declines slightly in June

By Jason Boone

June was the busiest month for home sales in Bend, Oregon, to date in the 2016 calendar year in terms of houses sold and active listings, and the increase in inventory might have helped produce the first month-to-month drop in median sales price since November 2015.

The 462 active listings in June were a calendar-year high, as were the 287 sales. One hundred fifty homes on the market had their prices reduced, a percentage of reductions (32 percent) that hadn’t been seen since September 2015. That month, 37 percent of the 562 listings in Bend had reduced prices.

Inventory crept up from 1.7 months in May to 1.8 months in June. A six-month inventory generally is regarded as the dividing line between a buyer’s and a seller’s market.

The median price of sold homes was $370,000 in June, down from $374,000 in May. Year over year, the median price has risen 12.3 percent from June 2015’s figure of $329,450. Even with the monthly decline in median price in June, the year-to-date median price rose to $352,225.

Notwithstanding the decline in median sales price, June’s figure ranks third in the 10 years for which the Skjersaa Group has sales data. Only May 2007 ($396,250) and May 2016 have had higher median sales prices than June.

Homes in the $425,100-$525,000 range had an average ratio of sales price to list price of 100 percent and the shortest average days on market (94 days) of any price range. Inventory in this price range dropped from 1.9 months in May to 1.6 months in June.

June’s overall ratio of sales price to list price was 99 percent, the same as for the entire 2015 calendar year and the fifth month this calendar year with a ratio that high.

Looking ahead, 288 sales were pending and 506 listings were active heading into July. Those are relatively high numbers and should portend a continuing active market.

The real estate environment in Bend might appear daunting, considering the pace of activity in such a desirable market. My experience here can help you find the right home at the right price, or, if you are looking to sell, I can help you market your home for an optimal outcome in our conditions.

To learn more about Bend home prices, get started with listing your Bend home, or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

 

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Median sales price continues rise, but is a ceiling near?

By Jason Boone

The median sales price of homes in Bend has increased every month this year.

The median sales price of homes in Bend has increased every month this year.

The median price of homes sold in Bend, Oregon, in May was the second-highest in the last 10 years, but there are signs that prices might be nearing or at a peak.

At $374,000, the median sales price in May 2016 trailed only that of May 2007 ($396,250) in the time span covered by the Skjersaa Group’s data, which dates to the start of 2007. May’s figures represent an increase of 2.8 percent from April’s median and marked the fourth month in a row the median sales price has increased.

May’s sales data pushed the year-to-date median sales price to $349,500.

Of the 243 homes sold in May, nearly one-fourth (60) were priced at $525,100 or more, which contributed to the rise in the median price. The percentage of May’s home sales priced in that range was similar to the rate in May 2007 (31 of 118 homes, 26 percent) and was a high for 2016.

Housing inventory in May declined from a record-low 2.1 months in April still further, to 1.7 months, even as active listings rose to 462 homes, a high for 2016. Months of inventory estimates how long it would take to sell all of the homes for sale if no new properties went to market. Six months is commonly used as the boundary separating a seller’s market and a buyer’s market.

Among the other figures from May:

• The number of pending sales at the end of the month numbered 266 homes, fewer than the previous two months.

• The average days on market was 114 days, the lowest since the 109 days in October 2015.

• Nearly one-fourth of the active listings in May had a price reduction. That is the most for any month this year.

In the last three years, the number of homes sold in June was no lower than the second-most of any month that calendar year. The robust number of pending sales and the low inventory at the end of May 2016 indicate another busy month probably lies ahead.

Still, the reductions in price last month indicate the market might be reaching a zenith with pricing. Current conditions make it imperative for sellers entering the market to price their homes exceptionally well to garner the attention of buyers as competition becomes greater.

My experience in the Bend market can help you market your home in our current conditions, or if you are looking to buy a home, I can help you find the right home at the right price.

To learn more about Bend home prices, get started with listing your Bend home, or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

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Inventory down, median price up in April

By Jason Boone

An already tight housing market in Bend, Oregon, got tighter in April.

Through the end of April, the inventory of houses for sale in the Bend market was 2.1 months, according to data compiled by the Skjersaa Group. The inventory of 2.1 months is the lowest in the time period covered by the Skjersaa Group’s data, which dates to the start of 2007.

Months of inventory estimates how long it would take to sell all of the homes for sale if no new properties went to market. Six months is commonly used as the dividing line between a seller’s market and a buyer’s market.

April’s 2.1 months of inventory is a decline from 2.3 months in March, which tied June 2013 for the lowest inventory in the Skjersaa Group’s data set. In April of the previous year, the Bend market had an inventory of 3.1 months.

Pending sales headed into May indicate another busy month of home sales in the Bend area.

Pending sales headed into May indicate another busy month of home sales in the Bend area.

Pending home sales in April 2016 also reflect the tightening market. Last month had 323 pending sales, which exceeds any other month for which we have data. The only other months since the start of 2007 in which pending sales exceeded 300 were April 2015 (301) and May 2015 (310). The number of pending sales in April 2016 promises continued robust sales figures for this month.

The dwindling inventory apparently played a hand in the rise of the median price of sold homes. April’s median sales price in the Bend market was $363,650. That’s the third-highest median sales price in the data set, and the highest since May 2007, when the median price was $396,250. The inventory in May 2007, however, was 15.2 months, more than seven times as great as the April 2016 inventory.

Comparison to the previous month and the previous year demonstrate how the market has moved. April’s median sales price is 5.1 percent higher than the median in March of this year ($346,000) and 17.3 percent higher than in April 2015 ($309,990).

By volume of sales, April was the busiest month of this calendar year with 205 closed sales. That’s barely more than were sold in April 2015, when 203 home sales closed. But the number of homes for sale last month in the Bend market was 360, compared with 424 in April 215. Expressed another way, two more homes were sold last month than in April 2015, even though 15 percent fewer homes were on the market in April 2016 compared with a year ago.

As of May 1, 407 homes in the Bend market were for sale, the most for any month this year.

A data point that aligns with the increase in the median sales price is the number of homes sold for more than $425,100. There were 69 such sales last month, the most since 72 in that price range were sold in September 2015. As a percentage of all home sales, 34 percent of April’s sales were in this price range, whereas 32 percent of the sales last September were for $425,100 or more.

And, not unexpectedly based on the above statistic, fewer houses in the range of $225,100 to $325,000 were sold in April. Thirty-three percent of April 2016’s sales were in that range. That’s down a little from March of this year (37 percent) and down more from April 2015 (46 percent).

The aggregated data from a month of sales and listings, of course, can’t determine the needs of an individual buyer or seller. I can help navigate the market and find the perfect Bend home, or market your home in this environment.

To learn more about Bend home prices, get started with listing your Bend home, or to view area homes, contact me at (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

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Bend median home price stays strong in October

Bend Oregon Home For SaleBy Jason Boone

The upward trajectory of the Bend, Oregon housing market continued in October 2015, extending a four-year recovery trend from the depths of the Great Recession. Bend’s October median home price came in at a robust $339,500, according to data recently compiled by the Skjersaa Group. The year-to-date median — the number where half the homes sold for more and half less — sits at $329,000.

Both median prices represent a significant year-over-year gain. In October 2014, the median sat at $290,000 both for the month and year to date. Of course, anyone with a memory remembers the scariest days of the recession, when the median home price in Bend bottomed out at $169,950 in February 2011.

Despite the dramatic gains, though, the Bend market is closer to balance than some might think. For one, the median home price is still well below the statistical high point hit in May 2007, when the median price in Bend hit $396,250.

And contrary to what many folks who see all those For Sale signs might believe, there is not a glut of homes on the market right now. In fact, that appears to be far from the case.

The number of active listings is significantly fewer than the waning days of the housing boom. In September 2007, 1,587 active listings were on the Bend market. And in February 2009, the months of inventory sat at 47.7 months.

Contrast that to today. Right now there are 565 active listings, which is less than the 638 on the market in October 2014. And in October, the Bend market had just 3.8 months of inventory of homes for sale. In fact, the market has averaged just three months of inventory year to date.

What does that all mean for buyers and sellers?

Six to seven months of inventory in Bend is considered a balanced market, which means the market still is favoring sellers. But there are signs that the Bend market does seem to be moderating after nearly four years of gains, which countered three years of losses.

Moderation, of course, is good news for most everybody.

Knowing what trends have developed can give both buyers and sellers an advantage in the market. Here are some other interesting tidbits that can be gleaned from the data:

  • The earlier in the year the better for sellers. More and more homes are hitting the market as the months get warmer. Since 2013, the first half of each year has produced far fewer price reductions. In April 2015 Bend saw 79 price reductions. In May, that number jumped to 138 and had climbed each month since before falling back to 145 in October.
  • The months of home inventory has held under six months during each month since September 2014. Until it reaches six months of inventory, though, Bend will be considered a “seller’s market.” The market for homes of less than $425,000 was the most competitive, with less than two months of inventory.
  • The average selling price so far this year has been 99 percent of its listing price. And the average days on market has been 120 days. Not surprisingly, in October homes between $125,000 and $225,000 (a small group that accounted for just 10 sales) spent the fewest days on market at just 85 days.
  • In October, there were 194 homes sold, which is fewer than the 207 sold in October 2014. So far this year there has been an average of 202 sales per month, which is up from the 183 per month through October 2014 and the 186 per month in 2013. The statistical low was in 2008 with a shocking average of just 68 sales per month.

Knowing how the data applies to each buyer or seller takes expertise. I can help navigate the market and find the perfect Bend, Oregon home.

To learn more about Bend home prices, get started with listing your Bend home, or to view area homes contact me call (541) 383-1426, or visit Bend Property Search to connect with me through my website.

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Jason Boone | Principal Broker, CRIS | Duke Warner Realty | Skjersaa Group
Oregon Real Estate Licensee | 1033 NW Newport Ave Bend, Oregon